Own Thesis Note
Own Strategy Over News, Own Thesis Before Hype
[카테고리:] Uncategorized
-
China’s October 2025 export controls on rare earth elements (REEs) represent a sophisticated escalation in the U.S.-China tech rivalry. This is a complex strategy that extends beyond a simple raw material embargo to target processing technologies and assert extraterritorial jurisdiction. The most immediate and severe vulnerability for the U.S. semiconductor industry lies not in the…
-
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the key factors influencing the stock price of Apple Inc. (Apple) and presents a quantitative valuation model to forecast its market capitalization and stock price over the next three years (fiscal years 2025-2027). Apple’s corporate value is at a significant inflection point, transitioning from a hardware-centric growth model…
-
This report analyzes the key drivers affecting the stock price of ASML Holding N.V. (hereafter ASML), a pivotal company in the semiconductor industry, and provides a quantitative forecast for its enterprise value and stock price over the next one, three, and five years. A multi-scenario analysis was conducted, focusing on three core factors: ASML’s proprietary…
-
This report provides an in-depth analysis of Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO), a company evaluated as a high-risk, high-reward investment positioned at the confluence of two powerful secular trends: the explosive growth in electricity demand driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the policy-driven push for decarbonization and energy security. Oklo’s enterprise value is entirely contingent on…
-
Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY, hereafter “Joby”) presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity in the nascent Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) market. Its current enterprise value is not based on traditional financial metrics but on its substantial, quantifiable lead in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification process, estimated to be at least 18-24 months ahead of its…
-
This report provides a quantitative analysis of the key drivers influencing the long-term value and stock direction of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), presenting future enterprise value and stock price forecasts based on various scenarios.
-
This report presents an in-depth analysis of IREN Limited (hereafter IREN) and proposes the following investment thesis: IREN serves as an investment vehicle with high beta and operational leverage to the Bitcoin price cycle, while simultaneously possessing the characteristics of a long-term call option on the structural expansion of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure market.…
-
The core thesis of this report is that Oracle’s enterprise value is undergoing a fundamental reassessment. This is driven by its successful transition from a legacy software vendor to a high-growth cloud infrastructure company at the epicenter of the generative AI boom. Specifically, the explosive growth in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) is the most critical…
-
This analysis begins with a “cautiously optimistic” perspective on Meta Platforms. The Base Case anticipates continued, albeit moderating, growth in the core advertising business, partially offset by substantial multi-year investments and operating losses in the Reality Labs division. The company’s valuation hinges on a delicate balance: successfully defending its advertising moat against competitors like TikTok…
-
This report presents the core investment thesis that DoorDash, Inc. (the “Company”) is evolving from its dominant position in the U.S. food delivery market into a broad local commerce logistics platform. The Company’s current valuation hinges not just on the profitability of its restaurant delivery business, but on its potential to redefine its Total Addressable…