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● Samsung Electronics (005930): At the Crossroads of an AI Supercycle and a Foundry Turnaround

Samsung Electronics Interactive Stock Price Forecaster

Samsung Electronics Interactive Valuation

Adjust assumptions to forecast the stock price based on the Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) model.

1-Year Target Price

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3-Year Target Price

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5-Year Target Price

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Select Scenario

DS (Device Solutions) Division Drivers

30%
16%
3%
10.0x

DX (Device eXperience) Division Drivers

1.5%
2.0%
9.0%
6.0x

Value Contribution (3-Year)

Summary

This model calculates Samsung’s equity value by summing the individual values of its core divisions. Adjust the sliders to see how changes in key growth drivers and valuation multiples impact the final stock price forecast.

Current active scenario: Base Case.

Samsung Electronics Core Value Analysis Infographic

Samsung Electronics: Core Drivers of Future Value

A visual analysis of the key growth factors and future outlook for the Device Solutions (DS) and Device eXperience (DX) divisions.

Samsung’s Two Pillars: DS vs. DX

Samsung’s growth is built on the synergy between the technology-driven DS division and the market-leading DX division.

💡

DS (Device Solutions)

Semiconductors & Displays

Core of the AI Era, Technology-Intensive Growth

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DX (Device eXperience)

Smartphones & Home Appliances

Global Brand Power, Stable Revenue Generation

Future Growth Engine: Core Drivers of the DS Division

The explosive growth of the AI market is driving demand for HBM (High-Bandwidth Memory), while expanding market share in the foundry sector is key to long-term growth.

Projected HBM Market CAGR

Based on the Bull scenario, exponential HBM revenue growth is expected due to the expanding AI server market.

Foundry Market Share Targets

The goal is to close the gap with TSMC and increase market share through the successful mass production of next-gen 2/3nm processes.

Value Contribution Analysis (SOTP Model)

Samsung Electronics’ enterprise value is assessed by summing the values of its individual divisions. The semiconductor (DS) division accounts for the largest portion of this total value.

The Sum-of-the-Parts (SOTP) analysis reveals that the DS division is the core contributor, making up more than half of the total enterprise value, followed by the DX division and other assets.

Future Scenarios: Bull vs. Bear

Samsung’s future could unfold differently based on external conditions and internal strategic success. Here are the key variables for each scenario.

🐂 Bull Case (Positive Scenario)

  • HBM Growth: Exceeds 40%
  • Foundry Share: Surpasses 22%
  • Maintains dominant leadership in the foldable phone market

🐻 Bear Case (Negative Scenario)

  • HBM Growth: Slows to below 15%
  • Foundry Share: Drops below 10%
  • Delayed recovery in the consumer electronics market

Opportunities & Risk Factors

✅ Opportunities

  • Arrival of a semiconductor super-cycle driven by the AI market boom.
  • Securing technology leadership in next-gen 2/3nm foundry processes.
  • Mainstreaming of foldable smartphones and dominance in the premium market.
  • High growth and synergy creation from the automotive (Harman) business.

⚠️ Risks

  • Escalating geopolitical risks, such as US-China trade disputes.
  • Contraction in IT demand due to a global economic recession.
  • Intensified competition in the foundry and memory markets.
  • Stagnation in smartphone market growth and pursuit by Chinese competitors.

This infographic is based on publicly available information and is not intended as investment advice.

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