JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Price Scenario Calculator
Select a scenario and time horizon to load the report’s assumptions. You can then adjust the “Key Calculation Drivers” (Projected EPS and P/E) to create your own forecast.
3. Adjust Assumptions
Key Calculation Drivers (Interactive)
The final price is calculated using these two values. The scenario buttons load the implied EPS and P/E from the report. Feel free to change them.
Contextual Macro Assumptions (Adjustable)
These are the report’s underlying economic assumptions. The scenario buttons load the report’s values. You can adjust them for your own reference. These fields do not drive the price calculation.
4. Projected Stock Price
Current JPM Price (Baseline): $294.00
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Stock Price
Factors & Future Scenarios
Current Price (as of Oct 2025)
$294.00
What key macroeconomic factors will shape its future value?
Key Driving Factors
The valuation of a major bank like JPMorgan Chase is deeply interconnected with the health of the economy. These macroeconomic factors are critical inputs for forecasting its performance.
Federal Funds Rate
Dictates short-term borrowing costs. A higher rate can increase net interest margin (NIM), boosting profitability, but may also slow loan demand.
10-Year Treasury Yield
Acts as a benchmark for long-term loans, including mortgages. A steeper yield curve (wider spread) is generally highly profitable for banks.
Core PCE Inflation
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Persistent inflation triggers higher rates, impacting both bank margins and the risk of economic slowdown.
Real GDP Growth
Strong economic growth fuels loan demand, investment banking activity, and wealth management, directly benefiting JPM’s diverse revenue streams.
S&P 500 Growth
A proxy for market health. Bull markets drive AUM growth in wealth management and increase fees from capital markets and M&A activity.
Unemployment Rate
A key indicator of credit risk. Low unemployment means fewer loan defaults, while high unemployment signals potential credit losses.
Scenario Price Forecasts: 2025-2030
Based on different economic outlooks, we can project a range of potential price paths for JPM. The line chart below visualizes the 1, 3, and 5-year targets for each scenario, showing the divergence from the current price.
5-Year Outlook (2030)
By the end of 2030, the projected outcomes vary significantly. The 5-year target provides a clear snapshot of the long-term impact of each economic environment on JPM’s valuation.
Pessimistic
$290.00
-1.4% vs Current
Implies a “lost half-decade” of stagflation or recession.
Baseline
$408.00
+38.8% vs Current
Represents steady growth and a return to normal economic conditions.
Optimistic
$525.00
+78.6% vs Current
Assumes strong growth, mild inflation, and a favorable market.
Underlying Macro Assumptions
The price targets are not arbitrary. They are derived from quantitative models fed by these specific macroeconomic assumptions for each time horizon. This table provides a detailed comparison of the data driving each forecast.
| Metric | Scenario | 1-Year (2026) | 3-Year (2028) | 5-Year (2030) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP Growth | Optimistic | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Baseline | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | |
| Pessimistic | -0.5% | 1.5% | 1.7% | |
| S&P 500 Annual Growth | Optimistic | +15% | +10% | +8% |
| Baseline | +8% | +7% | +6% | |
| Pessimistic | -15% | +5% | +7% | |
| Unemployment Rate | Optimistic | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% |
| Baseline | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.1% | |
| Pessimistic | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | |
| Core PCE Inflation | Optimistic | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| Baseline | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | |
| Pessimistic | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.4% | |
| Federal Funds Rate | Optimistic | 3.00% | 2.50% | 2.50% |
| Baseline | 3.50% | 3.00% | 3.00% | |
| Pessimistic | 4.50% | 3.75% | 3.25% | |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield | Optimistic | 3.25% | 3.00% | 3.00% |
| Baseline | 3.75% | 3.50% | 3.50% | |
| Pessimistic | 4.25% | 3.50% | 3.25% | |
| Yield Curve Spread | Optimistic | +0.50% | +0.75% | +0.75% |
| Baseline | +0.25% | +0.50% | +0.50% | |
| Pessimistic | -0.25% | 0.00% | +0.25% |