Tesla Valuation Dashboard Guideline

This dashboard utilizes a “Sum-of-the-Parts” (SOTP) valuation method, which assesses Tesla’s complex business model by breaking it down into several core segments. Users can adjust assumptions about the future performance of each business segment using sliders to simulate scenario-based enterprise values and stock prices.

Components of the Valuation Model

1. General Assumptions

• Target Year: The future point in time for which you want to estimate the company’s value.
• Shares Outstanding: The total number of Tesla’s issued shares. The total market capitalization is divided by this number to calculate the price per share.

2. Automotive

This is Tesla’s core business of selling electric vehicles.

• Annual EV Deliveries: The total number of vehicles expected to be sold in the target year.
• Average Selling Price (ASP): The average price per vehicle sold. This can vary depending on the model mix (e.g., Model 3/Y, Cybertruck).
• Operating Margin: The ratio of operating income to revenue. It’s influenced by production efficiency, raw material costs, etc.
• Valuation P/E Multiple: The market’s valuation of the automotive business relative to its operating profit (Price-to-Earnings ratio). It tends to be higher than traditional automakers and closer to tech growth stocks.

3. FSD Software

The sale of Full Self-Driving software is treated as a separate, high-margin revenue stream.

• FSD Take Rate: The percentage of new car buyers who purchase the FSD option.
• FSD One-Time Price: The one-time purchase price for the FSD software.
• Operating Margin: Software has a very high margin as it incurs minimal production costs beyond initial development.
• Valuation P/E Multiple: A high P/E multiple is applied, similar to other high-growth, profitable software/tech companies.

4. Energy

This segment includes Energy Storage Systems (ESS) and solar power generation businesses.

• Annual ESS Deployed: The annual installation capacity (in GWh) of energy storage products like Megapack and Powerwall.
• Revenue per GWh: The average revenue generated from selling/installing 1 GWh of ESS.
• Operating Margin: The profitability of the energy division.
• Valuation P/S Multiple: As the energy business is in its early growth stages, it is often valued based on revenue (P/S, Price-to-Sales ratio) rather than profit (P/E).

5. Robotaxi Network

This refers to the future autonomous ride-hailing network powered by FSD technology. It has the highest potential but also the greatest uncertainty.

• Robotaxi Fleet Size: The total number of vehicles operating in the network.
• Annual Revenue/Taxi: The average annual revenue generated by a single robotaxi. (Miles driven * Fare per mile * Tesla’s commission rate).
• Operating Margin: Expected to be very high due to the absence of driver labor costs.
• Valuation P/E Multiple: Could be assigned a very high multiple, as it’s considered a disruptive platform business.

6. Optimus Robot

This business involves the sale and service of humanoid robots. It is the most long-term venture.

• Commercialization Year: The year when the robot sales are expected to begin in earnest.
• Peak Annual Units: The number of robots expected to be sold annually in the target year.
• Price per Unit: The selling price of one robot.
• Operating Margin: The expected profit margin at mass production scale.
• Valuation P/E Multiple: The multiple is set considering its potential to create an entirely new market.

Disclaimer

This dashboard is a simplified model created for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be used for actual stock price prediction or as financial advice. Numerous variables, including market conditions, competition, regulations, and technological advancements, will affect the actual value of the company.